Skew & Signal

Skew & Signal #31

Skew & Signal #30

In-line inflation data triggered a Friday relief rally that snapped a four-session losing streak, BRICS leaders adopted a unanimous declaration urging "maximum restraint" in the Middle East, and Chime and Ramp both made major moves that reshape the fintech landscape. Markets caught their breath just as global diplomacy tried to do the same.

Skew & Signal #29

Oil topped $100 a barrel for the first time in months as hot producer-price data revived rate-hike bets, stocks fell for a third straight session, and Oracle quietly delivered the reassurance investors needed on AI cash burn. Inflation, oil, and AI spending are once again colliding at the same time.

Skew & Signal #28

Stocks returned from the long weekend to renewed Iran fighting and rising oil prices, software makers led a second straight day of AI-related losses, and traders are now bracing for fresh inflation data and Oracle's earnings later this week. A holiday-shortened week is opening with just as much uncertainty as the one before it.

Skew & Signal #27

A blowout jobs report sent stocks lower on renewed rate-hike fears, the U.S. struck Iranian oil tankers over the holiday weekend, and Iran vowed a "more painful" response to any further attack. Strong labor data and rising geopolitical risk are pulling markets in opposite directions heading into a shortened trading week.

Skew & Signal #26

Stocks clawed back two days of losses as Fed Governor Waller signaled inflation pressures are easing, bond yields fell from multi-year highs, and tech led a rally even with Iran tensions still simmering. A rough start to September is turning into a genuine relief rally, at least for now.

Skew & Signal #25

The U.S. and Iran traded fire for the first time in a month, oil surged toward $94 and the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since January 2025, dragging stocks into a rough start to historically the market's weakest month. August still closed with solid gains, but September is opening exactly the way its reputation would suggest.

Skew & Signal #24

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote rattled bond markets by insisting inflation work isn't done, consumer confidence slipped again, and G20 finance ministers descended on Asheville amid protests. Stocks still closed out a winning week, but the Fed's tone has clearly shifted more hawkish heading into September.