Skew & Signal #23

Today's read: Nvidia beat Wall Street for a 15th straight quarter and still saw shares wobble before an expanded Amazon deal and a bullish 2028 forecast turned the reaction positive. Strong manufacturing data is keeping stocks propped up, but the market's nerves around AI spending clearly haven't gone away.

A five-minute briefing built from developments reported August 26–27.

Nvidia Posts $96.2 Billion in Revenue, Beating for a 15th Straight Quarter

Nvidia reported $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue with a 75% gross margin, adjusted earnings of $2.22 per share, and $59.7 billion in net income, smashing analyst projections for a 15th consecutive quarter, yet shares initially fell in after-hours trading before recovering.

Why it matters: A beat this decisive still triggering an initial selloff shows just how high the bar has climbed for the world's most important AI stock, where "great" results aren't automatically good enough without equally convincing forward guidance.

A 70% Revenue Forecast and Expanded Amazon Deal Flip Nvidia's Stock Higher

Nvidia shares turned around to rise roughly 4% after the company forecast a 70% increase in revenue for fiscal 2028 and disclosed an expanded partnership with Amazon, helping push Nasdaq 100 futures up about 1% in after-hours trading.

Why it matters: Investors ultimately cared more about a concrete multi-year growth forecast and a deepened hyperscaler relationship than the current quarter's numbers, confirming that Nvidia's stock now trades primarily on the durability of AI demand rather than backward-looking results.

Strong Manufacturing Data Keeps Stocks Capped in a Tight Range

The S&P 500 finished essentially unchanged Thursday as strong manufacturing data collided with rising borrowing costs, with the index continuing to test the upper end of a recent consolidation range while staying above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, and options traders' put-call ratio ending the session at a bullish 0.83.

Why it matters: A market pinned between good economic data and higher borrowing costs shows investors are still working through the same tension that's defined the past month, where every piece of encouraging news comes bundled with an offsetting rate concern.

U.S. Fintech Investment Tops $80 Billion in H1 2026, Led by Payments Mega-Deals

U.S. fintech investment reached $80.8 billion across 933 deals in the first half of 2026, according to KPMG's Pulse of Fintech report, with payments consolidation leading the way, headlined by FIS's $24.3 billion acquisition of Worldpay, putting the sector on pace for a four-year global high.

Why it matters: A single acquisition accounting for nearly a third of total fintech investment shows this cycle is being driven by scale-seeking consolidation among incumbents rather than a broad venture-funding boom, a very different dynamic than the fintech growth surges of years past.

BMO and RBC Sell Payments Venture Moneris to Francisco Partners for $1.44 Billion

Bank of Montreal and Royal Bank of Canada agreed to sell their payments joint venture Moneris to U.S. tech investor Francisco Partners in a cash deal valued at roughly CAD 2 billion, or about $1.44 billion, part of a broader wave of legacy banks offloading payments infrastructure to specialist private equity buyers.

Why it matters: Major Canadian banks divesting their own payments business to a private equity firm underscores how even large incumbents increasingly see payments processing as a specialized, capital-intensive utility better run by dedicated operators than kept in-house.

Skew & Signal — the forces moving money, markets, and financial technology.

Editorial issue for August 28, 2026 · News window: August 26–27, 2026